Revolutionizing My Returns


The “Whiplash”
November 9, 2007, 5:28 pm
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The “whiplash” happens when you get shook out of a position, belive the new direction, comit to a buy in that new direction, then the stock reverses direction again.

Trade Well.



The “shake out”
November 9, 2007, 5:24 pm
Filed under: "Definitions" | Tags: , , , ,

The shake out is a simple process in which you are convinced to get out of a position at the worst possible time before it reverses direction.

The Causes:
Most often we find ourselves shook out of a position when the stock takes a turn in the opposite direction that we had believed it would go.  This can be a good thing if the stock continues to head in that polarized direction, but that would be a “Wise Decision”.  The “shake” element becomes evident when the stock immediately reverses course upon your decision to cut your losses.  Don’t beat yourself up in these situations though, a truly wise investor has stop limits on each of his/her positions that they treat as the law.  It’s just that they sometimes cause you to get the shake out.

The Scenarios:
Most often you will be shook out when a long position has pulled back significantly in a short period of time and it has reached some sort of criteria to cut your loss.  It can also happen on a stock you are short on that has turned positive.  Now, stocks reverse direction for good reason quite often and if that is the case, you should just get out and not wait for your stop loss to be reached.  In the event that you believe the turn in direction is unfounded, then you will need to keep an eye on your bailout paramaters that you already have in place.  And if those criteria are met, and you leave your position, that is when the “shake out” can occur.

The lesser known scenario for a shake out is when you believe that your position has peaked and that the stock is going take a major turn in direction.  You sell your position and the stock continues in a direction that would have made you more money.  Some people will argue that an investor should close out some of a position to take some gains, but the bottom line is if you sell one or all shares of an investment and it continues to go in a direction that you would have made more money….you have been shook out!

The Bottom Line:
Someday, you will get out of a position that you will swear was the exact turning point for the stock.  Grin and bear it.  It is a part of being a serious investor.  The most important thing to remember is to not let yourself get “Whiplashed“.

Trade Well.



The Shark
October 9, 2007, 5:04 pm
Filed under: "Definitions" | Tags: , , , , ,

So there is this element of my trading I like to call The Shark.  I call it that because it is just that.  When I get into the “water” (the bid/ask/last amounts) of a trade, or when I have done my research, made my buy marks, checked my values and am ready to trade, I sometimes turn into a shark. 

Sometimes things look just as they should on value and I buy within 10 seconds of looking at the water.  Other times, it looks like a price I want to pay is below the surface and if they are not that far off, I turn into a shark.  I get in a mindset that I can splash the water enough to drum the price I want up to the surface.  About 25% of the time it works.  Is the price moving because of my actions?  Probably not, but the shark would argue differently.

There are serious troubles with this part of me that likes to surface.  Some of the time (50 - 60%), my actions cause the price I wanted to sink further below the water.  The shark believes this is okay because that amount will drown down there and end up floating back to the surface.  He thinks this because approximately 2% of the time it does.  Again is it a result of the shark’s actions?  Probably not, but even right now he is inside me shaking his head at us for doubting his logic like an off mike commentator on a CNBC split screen debate.

As for the remaining percentage of time (you can do the math for the number), I am but a guy swimming in the water with a shark fin on my back being eaten by another shark.  Splash Splash!

Trade Well.